D-Day for Jonathan, Buhari, Ribadu, Shekarau

For Nigerians, the moment of decision is here, as they troop to the polling booths today (Saturday) to elect their president. All eyes will be on Nigeria, the most populous African country with a population of 150 million. President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party; Mallam Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria; Gen. Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change; and Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau of the All Nigeria Peoples Party, will in about two days know who among them will be sworn in as the fourth elected president of Nigeria come May 29, 2011. At least 20 candidates are contesting the election. But the four candidates are considered the front runners. Among the four contestants, it is believed that Jonathan is the preferred candidate judging by a lot of factors. In Nigeria, no sitting President has ever been defeated. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who was among those that fought for the PDP presidential ticket, promised to make nonsense of that assumption but fell by the way side last January at the Eagle Square in Abuja. If Jonathan could not be defeated then, it is assumed that there is no other candidate among the three front runners capable of unseating him today. Analysts, who have such a notion, say the PDP is the biggest political party in the country and its strength cuts across the six geo-political zones. This is a plus for the President. They also argue that since the party triumphed over its rivals in last Saturday’s parliamentary election, then it would be difficult to stop Jonathan today. Political analysts say that even in the South-West, where the PDP was severely trounced last Saturday in the National Assembly ballot, the situation may change in today’s election as the electorate might still prefer him to any of the three leading contestants. He is expected to win majority votes in the entire 11 states of the South-South and South-East geo-political zones. He should also win majority votes in Ondo State, where the Labour Party is ruling as the party has adopted him as its presidential candidate. In Ogun State, former President Olusegun Obasanjo and the state governor, Otunba Gbenga Daniel are expected to temporarily forget their political acrimony and deliver the state to Jonathan. The animosity between the two prominent sons of the state led to the defeat of the PDP in the last election. While Daniel and his supporters had moved out of the PDP and joined the Peoples Party of Nigeria, Obasanjo remained with the PDP. Thus, the two parties shared the votes that could have accrued to the PDP. This gave the ACN the opportunity to win almost all the available seats in the state. The situation is expected to be different today. The President, many believe, has started fulfilling his promise to conduct free and fair elections after the success of last Saturday’s National Assembly poll. This is also considered a plus for him. If Jonathan wins the presidential poll, he will be making history by becoming the first elected president from a minority ethnic group. His victory will also be a plus for the rights of minorities in a country with more than 250 ethnic groups. Already, the outcome of the National Assembly election is an indication that Jonathan and his party are on the road to victory in today’s (Saturday) presidential poll. But for the President, it may not be an easy walk to victory. The PDP presidential candidate has its counterpart in the CPC to contend with. Buhari, who had served the country as a minister of petroleum and head of state, is loved by many for his disciplined and anti-graft posture. The 68-year-old former head of state has been contesting the presidency since 2003, when he lost to former President Olusegun Obasanjo. In 2007, he was defeated by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua. He has said that he will not contest the presidential poll again after Saturday’s election. Buhari’s party, the CPC, did not perform up to expectation in the National Assembly election last Saturday. Analysts had thought that the huge turnout at his campaigns would translate into victory in the elections. But his party was defeated in Sokoto, Kebbi and Kano, where many had thought he would win. The party also performed woefully in the South as it could not win any senatorial or House of Representatives seat. The collapse of the alliance talks between the ACN and the CPC is considered as a minus for Buhari. Analysts had thought that the former head of state would get votes from the South, if the alliance had succeeded. But Buhari’s running mate, Pastor Tunde Bakare, during a television programme on Thursday, said the party would win the presidential poll in spite of the collapse of the alliance talks. “We have our strategy in place,” he assured. Whether the strategy will work or not, Nigerians will know in the next two days. Today’s (Saturday) election is Ribadu’s first shot at the presidency. The 50-year-old ACN presidential candidate is the youngest out of those contesting the poll. If the results of April 9 National Assembly election are anything to go by, the ACN candidate is assured of millions of votes in the South-West. But for the former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission to tell a success story, the performance of the ACN in other zones must improve. Shekarau, 56, is another serious candidate. His party won only one senatorial seat in the National Assembly election in his home state, Kano. The former school teacher has a lot to do before he could defeat the three other candidates today. According to Section 134 (2) and (3) of the 1999 Constitution, for a candidate to be declared the winner of a presidential election, he must score the highest number of votes and not less than one-quarter of the votes in each of at least two-thirds of all the states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. As the presidential poll holds today (Saturday), Nigerians will watch out for the candidates that will make the constitutional requirement. By Niyi Odebode and Olusola Fabiyi, Abuja Courtesy Of: Punch